Market Statistics from Sue Dahlgren – Group One Sotheby’s International Realty

 



March Market Report by Sue Dahlgren at Group One/Sotheby’s International Realty

OUR NEW COLOR IS BLUE BUT THE MARKET IS RED HOT

This is my first market report as Group One Sotheby’s International Realty and what a month to begin our new affiliation!

Despite our low inventory of residential homes, Ada County sales were up by 9% this March compared to last March and also up 9% for the quarter. Inventory is 15% lower than it was at the end of last March and we are experiencing double and triple offers, particularly on resale properties.

While average prices on all properties have increased 6.7% in the last year, the average price for resale properties has risen 7.4% compared to 4.9% for new homes. New home sales comprise 18% of total sales while new home listings are 42% of the number of total listings. There are 2.2 months of total inventory: 1.5 months of resale homes and 4.9 months of new homes.

The charts below compare the results of the trailing 12 months at the end of the first quarter for the last 2 years:

Market Statistics Click on the links below to download the latest Market Statistics.

Market Statistics
Click on the links below to download the latest Market Statistics.

Legend

Market – These include homes of all ages and new construction.
Existing - This includes all homes older than 1 year and excludes new construction data.
New Construction - This includes new, to be built, and under construction homes.

 Ada County Area Map
 Canyon County Area Map

Market Existing New Const
Ada County DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
North Boise, 100 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Northeast Boise, 200 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Southeast Boise, 300 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Boise Bench, 400 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Southwest Boise, 500 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
SW Boise/Meridian, 550 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
West Boise, 600 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
West Boise/Meridian, 650 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Garden City, 700 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
NW Boise/Garden City, 800 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Eagle, 900 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Star/Meridian, 950 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Southeast Meridian, 1000 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Southwest Meridian, 1010 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Northeast Meridian, 1020 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Northwest Meridian, 1030 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Kuna, 1100 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Market Existing New Const
Canyon County DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Nampa (83687), 1250 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Nampa (83686), 1260 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Melba, 1265 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Nampa (83651), 1270 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
NW Freeway, 1275 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
SW Freeway, 1280 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Middleton, 1285 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Canyon Other, 1290 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Parma, 1292 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Wilder, 1293 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Greenleaf, 1294 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF

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Market Statistics from Sue Dahlgren

FEBRUARY 2016 MARKET REPORT by Sue Dahlgren at Group One Real Estate

A GOOD START

February continued the New Year’s good start. Sales were up 7% compared to last February and up over 9% for the first two months of the year. Pending contracts at the end of February increased 28% compared to the end of last February, so the market improvement should continue as we enter the prime spring selling months.

Despite the increase in sales, inventory improved 3% compared to this time last year. Resale inventory increased 14% over the previous month, which is good news. Our resale inventory is down to 42 days and we need to bring more resale properties onto the market in order to have a vibrant selling season. New home inventory, on the other hand, decreased 7% since the end of January, which is also good news. The supply of new homes is down to 5.4 months, lower than in any month last year. A good pace of new home sales will encourage builders to continue to build homes, which will provide a wider array of choices for buyers.

With demand outpacing supply, prices continue to rise, although it’s interesting to note that the increase in the average resale price, at 8.4%, was higher than the average price increase for new homes at 5.7%. Again, this is good news since resale homes are selling for about 38% less than new homes.Â

All signs are positive for a good year in 2016. There is legitimate concern about whether prices are getting too high, but our unit sales continue to climb and the highest priced homes, new homes, have been selling faster than replacement. So let’s bring on resale inventory: there seems to be plenty of room for price increases and we need more resale choices for our buyers.

Market Statistics Click on the links below to download the latest Market Statistics.

Market Statistics
Click on the links below to download the latest Market Statistics.

Legend

Market – These include homes of all ages and new construction.
Existing - This includes all homes older than 1 year and excludes new construction data.
New Construction - This includes new, to be built, and under construction homes.

 Ada County Area Map
 Canyon County Area Map

Market Existing New Const
Ada County DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
North Boise, 100 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Northeast Boise, 200 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Southeast Boise, 300 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Boise Bench, 400 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Southwest Boise, 500 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
SW Boise/Meridian, 550 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
West Boise, 600 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
West Boise/Meridian, 650 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Garden City, 700 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
NW Boise/Garden City, 800 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Eagle, 900 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Star/Meridian, 950 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Southeast Meridian, 1000 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Southwest Meridian, 1010 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Northeast Meridian, 1020 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Northwest Meridian, 1030 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Kuna, 1100 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Market Existing New Const
Canyon County DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Nampa (83687), 1250 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Nampa (83686), 1260 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Melba, 1265 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Nampa (83651), 1270 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
NW Freeway, 1275 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
SW Freeway, 1280 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Middleton, 1285 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Canyon Other, 1290 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Parma, 1292 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Wilder, 1293 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Greenleaf, 1294 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF

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Market Statistics from Sue Dahlgren and Group One – February 2016

 

January 2016 Market Report by Sue Dahlgren at Group One Real Estate

FAST START

At the end of 2015 we wondered if the good news market could continue.

Well, January news was oddly good. It was a successful start to the year because sales were 12% higher than last January. It was odd because all of the improvement in sales was in resale properties; new home sales this January were identical to sales last January.

The future appears even brighter. Pendings were up 12% for resale homes and up 63% for new homes over last January.

Inventory in resale homes is down to only 36 days while new home inventory is balanced at 5.9 months. We desperately need more resale inventory. There are many more buyers than there are properties to buy.

Editorial Comment:  If you’ve been thinking about selling your home, this could be the perfect time. Don’t wait for spring. More homes will hit the market as soon as the grass turns green. Group One recommends LISTING your home. Fully listing your home means including it in the Multiple Listing Service. This allows your home to gain exposure to all buyers and agents, resulting in an offer based on full market exposure. Don’t leave potential money on the table by opting for a “Coming Soon” sign.

Market Statistics Click on the links below to download the latest Market Statistics.

Market Statistics
Click on the links below to download the latest Market Statistics.

Legend

Market – These include homes of all ages and new construction.
Existing - This includes all homes older than 1 year and excludes new construction data.
New Construction - This includes new, to be built, and under construction homes.

 Ada County Area Map
 Canyon County Area Map

Market Existing New Const
Ada County DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
North Boise, 100 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Northeast Boise, 200 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Southeast Boise, 300 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Boise Bench, 400 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Southwest Boise, 500 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
SW Boise/Meridian, 550 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
West Boise, 600 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
West Boise/Meridian, 650 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Garden City, 700 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
NW Boise/Garden City, 800 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Eagle, 900 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Star/Meridian, 950 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Southeast Meridian, 1000 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Southwest Meridian, 1010 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Northeast Meridian, 1020 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Northwest Meridian, 1030 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Kuna, 1100 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Market Existing New Const
Canyon County DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Nampa (83687), 1250 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Nampa (83686), 1260 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Melba, 1265 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Nampa (83651), 1270 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
NW Freeway, 1275 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
SW Freeway, 1280 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Middleton, 1285 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Canyon Other, 1290 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Parma, 1292 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Wilder, 1293 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Greenleaf, 1294 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF

Copyright © , All rights reserved.

 

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Market Statistics from Sue Dahlgren and Group One: December 2015

CAN WE HAVE AN ENCORE?

What a year!  Having closed 19% more residential properties than last year in Ada County at an average price increase of 7%, we have to ask ourselves: can we have an encore?

Or, will 2016 SUPPLY us with an encore?

What would we need for an encore? First, and most importantly, we need more supply: especially more resale inventory. Notice in the graph below that we began the year with 1922 residential properties on the market, which grew to a high of 2495 properties by the end of July, then shrunk to 1784 properties by the end of December. The percentage improvement in unit sales over last year roughly coincided with the available inventory except in December when there was a rush to close sales before the beginning of 2016.

We began last year with 60 days of resale inventory but this year we have only 39 days of inventory. We’ll need more resale properties to satisfy buyer demand and to have a healthy market this year. The inventory problem can’t be answered by new home construction: first, because new homes are on average 38% more expensive than resale homes and, second, the inventory of new homes, at 5.9 months, is evenly balanced between supply and demand. A dramatic increase in the supply of new homes is likely to increase standing inventory, not sales.

Finally, we need the cooperation of interest rates. While they increased for part of 2014, they have come back down and low rates help create an affordable housing market. So far, so good. And will prices rise too much? See the graph below that shows the movement of average price and unit sales from 2002 through 2015. We’ve moved close to our 2007 high but resale properties still look like a bargain.

It will be interesting to see what happens in January 2016 and how that compares to January 2015. Stay tuned.

What’s for sure? This is a great time to sell your resale home. With low resale inventory, you should be able to sell your home and participate in a great market, both as a seller and, after your home is sold, as a buyer facing enticing interest rates and great affordability.

Welcome to real estate in 2016: bring on the resale homes and let’s have an encore in 2016!

Market Statistics Click on the links below to download the latest Market Statistics.

Market Statistics
Click on the links below to download the latest Market Statistics.

Legend

Market – These include homes of all ages and new construction.
Existing - This includes all homes older than 1 year and excludes new construction data.
New Construction - This includes new, to be built, and under construction homes.

 Ada County Area Map
 Canyon County Area Map

Market Existing New Const
Ada County DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
North Boise, 100 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Northeast Boise, 200 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Southeast Boise, 300 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Boise Bench, 400 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Southwest Boise, 500 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
SW Boise/Meridian, 550 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
West Boise, 600 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
West Boise/Meridian, 650 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Garden City, 700 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
NW Boise/Garden City, 800 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Eagle, 900 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Star/Meridian, 950 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Southeast Meridian, 1000 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Southwest Meridian, 1010 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Northeast Meridian, 1020 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Northwest Meridian, 1030 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Kuna, 1100 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Market Existing New Const
Canyon County DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Nampa (83687), 1250 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Nampa (83686), 1260 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Melba, 1265 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Nampa (83651), 1270 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
NW Freeway, 1275 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
SW Freeway, 1280 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Middleton, 1285 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Canyon Other, 1290 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Parma, 1292 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Wilder, 1293 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF
Greenleaf, 1294 DownloadPDF DownloadPDF DownloadPDF

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Where is the Slowdown?

August 2015 Market Report By Group One Real Estate

Last month there was an article in the Idaho Statesman in which a few real estate agents said our market was about to experience a slowdown. The article included a table with some statistics but little or no effective evidence that a slowdown was upon us. Of course the market has always been slower in the winter months than during the “selling season” months, but the chart below shows that 2015 sales have been running about 15% ahead of last year and 2015 pending contracts, measured at the end of each month, have been running 22% ahead of last year.

AugMarketStats2015Closings

AugMarketStats2015Pendings

Who would have thought that we could have increased the money supply as we have and not be experiencing raging inflation by now? Who would have thought we could have such low interest rates for such a long period of time with the Federal Reserve still unclear on the timing of rate increases? Who would have thought we could have such a hot local real estate market with average prices increasing by only 5-6% per year? These unusual circumstances make it difficult to predict a near-term slowdown with any confidence.

What do we know for sure? We do know this is a superb time in residential real estate: Sellers can sell their properties for more than they have been able to for years and, when they become Buyers, they can still purchase affordable properties with very attractive financing.

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April Was Hot!

The weather was warm and the market was warmer.

In order to assist you in understanding the monthly statistics, it is important to describe how we capture and analyze our market data. Different sources may deliver slightly different statistics regarding price changes, unit sales, etc. Our data comes entirely from the Intermountain Multiple Listing Service and is captured into a database that includes single family detached homes on less than 2 acres, condominiums, and townhouses. Once the data is captured and stored, we can perform some analyses that wouldn’t otherwise be available to us.  For instance, we can track the changes in pending contracts over time because we measure them on the same day of each month and store that information in our database.  It’s also worth mentioning that when we speak about months of supply, we use the average number of sales over the trailing twelve months as the denominator in order to eliminate the skewing effect of seasonality.

The number of April closings in Ada County was 19% higher than last April and new contracts (pendings) were more than double those of last April. The large number of pending contracts means there should be a healthy market in the next several months. The average price of a home sold in the last twelve months rose 5% compared to the previous twelve months. Despite the increased pace of sales, inventory at the end of April rose 6% from the end of March, and a sign that homeowners recognize that the market is good for sellers: sales and prices are up and interest rates remain very favorable.

New homes comprised only 14% of all sales in April but pending sales of new homes at the end of this April are 35% higher than they were last April. New homes sold for almost 40% more than resale homes. There are 2.5 months of resale inventory and 5.7 months of new home inventory.

The chart that follows shows sales and inventory activity for the past thirteen months.

Ada_Co_All April 2015

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Get on the Bargain Bus!

 

The new year got off to a fast start in Ada County this January. Sales were up 15% over last January and new (pending) contracts increased 9%. Resale closings and pendings were both up 18%, reflecting rising buyer confidence, fantastic interest rates and the recognition that buying real estate in Boise right now is a bargain. New home sales also increased about 10% over last January although pendings were down 7%.

Inventory of resale homes is very low with only 2 months of supply. New home inventory of 6.1 months is down slightly, as we are getting rid of some standing finished inventory.

2015 looks like a great year in residential real estate: buyers are taking advantage of the great bargains presented by reasonable prices and low interest rates. Low inventory levels mean that sellers are able to put their homes on the market without worrying about too much competition.

Take advantage of 2015!

The charts below show current inventory and sales trends.

Inventory Analysis Jan MS 2015

 Inventory Trends Jan MS 2015

Market – These include homes of all ages and new construction.
Existing - This includes all homes older than 1 year and excludes new construction data.
New Construction - This includes new, to be built, and under construction homes.

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A LITTLE SLOWER NOW

The market slowed in November. Closings for the month were 7% lower than they were last November and new (pending) contracts were 8% lower. Inventory is at almost the same level as it was at the end of last November, leaving us with 3 1/2 months of homes on the market, 2 1/2 months of resale homes and almost 7 months of newly constructed homes.

At 7 months of inventory, new home sales have slowed significantly. Closings were 24% lower than last November and new home pending contracts were 17% lower. Resale homes, with only 2 1/2 months of supply, fared better: 3% lower in closings and 5% lower in pendings.

The average price of new homes closed in the last twelve months was 40% higher than the average price of resale homes. It’s interesting to note that the new home price per square foot was 18% higher than the price per square foot for resales and the size of new homes was 19% higher than resales. As we mentioned before, it looks like there is an opportunity for builders and developers to plan for smaller new homes.

Overall, our market this year is down 3% in units, up 5 1/2% in average price resulting in an increase of 3% in total volume.

The first chart below shows trends over the last year in sales, pendings and inventory. The second chart shows inventory levels at different price levels.

If you own a home and have been thinking of selling, with only 2 1/2 months of inventory on the market, this may be the best time to sell.  If you’re a buyer, the $87,000 difference in price between new and resale homes gives you plenty of room to invest in a resale home and make its effective age newer.

InventoryTrends 2014NovstatsInventoryAnalysis 2014novstats

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A Tale of Two Markets – continued

The average price of new homes sold during the first ten months of 2014 was 11% higher than in the first ten months of 2013. By contrast, the average price of resale homes rose only 6%. The difference in relative price increases explains why there is a 3.8-month supply of resale homes compared to a 6.5-month supply of new homes.  We have some standing finished inventory of new homes, a new development in 2014.  With new homes selling for 39% more than resale, resale homes look like a bargain: a buyer can do a lot of renovating with $85,000, the average dollar difference between new and resale homes.

The chart below shows movement in the average price of new and resale homes sold during the first ten months of the last four years.

Avg price

Total closings of both new and resale units during the first ten months are down 3.3% compared to last year but total dollar volume is up by 1.6% due to price increases. October units sold increased by 8.4% over last October, creating a strong start to the fourth quarter.

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A Tale of Two Markets

September residential sales in Ada County continued a tale of two markets: inventory reductions in the resale market and inventory increases in the new home market. The charts below show the changes in inventory over the past 13 months in both resale and new homes, resulting at the end of September in 3.6 months of inventory in resale homes (often referred to as a “Sellers’ Market”) and 6.8 months of inventory in the new home market (tipped slightly toward a “Buyers’ Market”).

The main reason for the difference appears to be price. The average price of new homes (including detached single family up to 2 acres, condominiums and townhomes) for the past 12 months is $302,806, 38% (and $82,000) higher than the average price of a resale home.

It’s interesting to note that the price per square foot of new construction is only 17% higher than the price per square foot of existing homes but the average size of new homes is 18% larger than the average size of resale homes: 2,301 square feet for new homes and 1,952 square feet for resale homes.

The total residential market through three quarters of this year is down 4.6% in units compared to the same period last year: 2.1% lower for existing homes and 15.3% lower for new homes. Total dollar volume, however, increased 3.1% as a result of higher average sales prices.

adacounty inventory copy

The opportunity for sellers of resale homes is great: the price difference between existing and new homes makes resale look like a bargain. The opportunity for buyers may be to purchase an existing home and renovate it to lessen the home’s effective age.

The opportunity for builders might be to build smaller homes, thereby reducing the price difference between resale and new homes. Once that price difference approaches 20% rather than the current 38%, new home sales should flourish.

 adacounty inventory

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